Expected increases in global population by 2050 will require an increase in food production between 30% and 62% over today’s output to combat rising food insecurity (Mirzabaev et al., 2023; Searchinger et al., 2018; van Dijk et al., 2021). Pressure among industrial, commercial, and public sectors regarding land availability and natural resources places constraints on production capacity and is likely to continue into the future (Farooq et al., 2022; Folberth et al., 2020; Foley et al., 2011). Climate projections indicate that the combination of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (C), air temperature (T), and water availability (W) are likely to negatively impact current/future yields of many agriculturally important crops without adaptation (Benitez-Alfonso et al., 2023; Neupane et al., 2022; Rezael et al., 2023). The occurrence of extreme weather events during crop growing seasons, which have the potential to reduce yields, is also occurring with increased frequency (Anapalli et al., 2019; Kimball, 2016; Walker and Van Loon, 2023). Annual increases in yields per unit land area for many crops have plateaued or decreased in the U.S. and most developed nations (Arata et al., 2020; Cassman et al., 2010). These factors underly the crucial need to identify methods to boost production efficiency and yield per unit area while protecting ecosystem functions and natural resources.

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The Crop, Land, and Soil Simulation (CLASSIM) group of models

  • D.H. Fleisher,
  • D.J. Timlin,
  • S. Li,
  • J. Barnaby,
  • S. Yesilkoy,
  • E. Han,
  • V.R. Reddy,
  • Z. Wang,
  • S. Beegum,
  • A. Mitra,
  • W. Sun

摘要

Expected increases in global population by 2050 will require an increase in food production between 30% and 62% over today’s output to combat rising food insecurity (Mirzabaev et al., 2023; Searchinger et al., 2018; van Dijk et al., 2021). Pressure among industrial, commercial, and public sectors regarding land availability and natural resources places constraints on production capacity and is likely to continue into the future (Farooq et al., 2022; Folberth et al., 2020; Foley et al., 2011). Climate projections indicate that the combination of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (C), air temperature (T), and water availability (W) are likely to negatively impact current/future yields of many agriculturally important crops without adaptation (Benitez-Alfonso et al., 2023; Neupane et al., 2022; Rezael et al., 2023). The occurrence of extreme weather events during crop growing seasons, which have the potential to reduce yields, is also occurring with increased frequency (Anapalli et al., 2019; Kimball, 2016; Walker and Van Loon, 2023). Annual increases in yields per unit land area for many crops have plateaued or decreased in the U.S. and most developed nations (Arata et al., 2020; Cassman et al., 2010). These factors underly the crucial need to identify methods to boost production efficiency and yield per unit area while protecting ecosystem functions and natural resources.