Scenario Elements Extraction and Scenario Sets Establishment Method for Railway Rainfall Disasters

Rainfall disasters lead to frequent railway accidents in various countries, which seriously affect the normal operation of railways. However, effective railway rainfall disaster monitoring, early warning and prevention methods have not yet been formed. Based on this, this paper analyzes the mechanism of railway rainfall disasters and accident reports, introduces the concept of scenario, and proposes the extraction method of scenario elements of rainfall disasters. The monitoring and quantifiable scenario elements were extracted to provide reference for disaster monitoring and early warning, and based on the hierarchical combination of scenario elements, the optimal disaster scenario sets were established by using scenario reduction method to describe the various stages of disaster evolution and development, laying a foundation for scenario-based disaster prediction, risk assessment, prevention and control and other studies. Finally, this paper takes Flood-bridge scenario type as an example to introduce the process of scenario elements extraction and scenario sets establishment.