Three-Dimensional Risk Assessment Model for the Impact of Equipment Failure on HSR Operation

Equipment failure is one of the most important risk factors of train delay and operation interruption on high-speed railway. Based on the data of equipment failure and running record, a three-dimensional risk matrix model of train operation interruption caused by equipment failure is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the impact of different types of equipment failure on the normal running of high-speed trains. Based on the analysis and mining of the data of railroad equipment failure and traffic record, this paper puts forward a quantitative method of risk occurrence probability and risk consequence severity based on data driving, and puts forward a risk controllability index based on the consideration of equipment failure characteristics and human factor relations, and gives a quantitative method of risk controllability by integrating the evaluation information of the index from railroad field experts by D-S theory. Finally, an improved radar chart method is used to integrate risk factors and obtain the risk grade of various equipment. The validity of the method is demonstrated by an example, which provides decision support for the railway field personnel to understand the weakness of equipment.