Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis of All-Parallel AT Traction Power Supply System

In order to evaluate the impact of train randomness and volatility on the traction power supply system, this paper firstly establishes the probability model of the train based on the probability distribution function of the train position from the time-position curve obtained by the train traction calculation. Then, considering the multiconductor characteristic and real structure of all-parallel autotransformer (AT) traction power supply system with a traction substation and two power supply arms, the probabilistic power flow calculation of the train-network system under the actual line parameters is carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that the probability model of the train and the probabilistic power flow calculation method can well analyze the probability distribution of the output power of the substation, the voltage amplitudes of the train, contact wires, rails and feeders under different train operation conditions.