Quantitative Analysis on the Impact of Coal Power Carbon Emission Cost and Capacity Price Revenue on the Long-Term Power Generation Balance of the System

The long-term evolution of coal power installed capacity in the physical dimension is affected by social factors such as coal-related policy mechanisms (carbon pricing and capacity electricity prices) and the decommissioning decision of existing coal power. Under the guidance of the Cyber-Physical-Social system in Energy (CPSSE), a hybrid simulation model covering coal power policy, existing coal power decommissioning decision, and long-term evolution of coal power installed capacity is established. The evolution process of the long-term financial condition and decommissioning time of each coal power plant with different carbon emission costs and capacity price revenue are obtained by the simulation model. And impact of coal power plant decommissioning on the long-term power generation balance of the whole system are analyzed. The results show that high carbon emission costs may have a fatal impact to the financial condition of coal power plants, and the resulting large-scale decommissioning in advance of coal power plants can cause long-term power generation balance risks of the whole system, and a reasonable capacity price can help to address the above risks.