Research on Target Threat Assessment in Wargaming Using the Adversarial Interpretive Structure Modeling Method

The evaluation of target threats is crucial for devising effective military action strategies in wargaming. While the commonly employed approach is the Multiple Attribute Decision Making method, its interpretability and comprehensibility are limited. Thus, this paper advocates for the adoption of the Adversarial Interpretive Structure Model method, which considers hierarchical relationships and causal factors associated with the targets, providing a comprehensive framework for assessing target threat levels. Through a case study, both methods are subjected to a comparative analysis, demonstrating the feasibility and superiority of the Adversarial Interpretive Structure Model method in target threat assessment. This method offers a structured decision-making process for target threat assessment and visually represents the final evaluation results using directed topological hierarchies, thereby enhancing the effectiveness and interpretability of target threat assessment.