Assessing Impacts of the European Union–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam’s Agricultural Exports

The European Union (EU) currently ranks as Vietnam’s third largest agricultural export market and largest organic agricultural export market. Therefore, the European Union–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) with the extensive commitment is expected to be an opportunity for Vietnamese agricultural products to penetrate more strongly into the EU market. Based on the SMART model and comparative analysis, the paper develops two tariff reduction scenarios to evaluate the impact of EVFTA on Vietnam’s agricultural exports to the EU. The results show that in both scenarios, the EU’s removal of tariffs on imported agricultural products only leads to a moderate increase in Vietnam’s exports to the EU. When the EU eliminates tariff on agricultural products from both Vietnam and ASEAN, Vietnam’s agricultural exports would significantly decrease. The export increase would focus on some large markets such as the Netherlands, Germany, and France. However, EVFTA would also bring potentials to increase exports to some niche markets such as Cyprus and Malta. Some product groups exhibiting significant potential for export growth are preparations of vegetables and fruit, fruit, products of the milling industry, coffee, and natural honey. Besides tariff commitments, commitments of geographical indications and quotas also bring positive impacts for Vietnam to promote exports to niche markets and exports of fruits, vegetables, rice, and mushrooms. However, strict commitments on TBTs, SPSs, traceability, and trade defense measures are barriers that can cause negative impacts on Vietnam’s ability to enjoy preferential tariffs. Based on these results, the paper proposes some implications for the government and businesses, focusing on enhancing the ability of Vietnam’s agricultural export products to meet TBTs, SPSs, rules of origin, and intellectual property measures.