Conditional Value at Risk Model of New Power System Reserve Assessment Considering Primary Energy Supply Risk

To deal with the difficulty of assessing the reserve demand of the new power system caused by the strong randomness in the new power system, a reserve assessment method of the new power system considering the primary energy supply risk is proposed. Based on conditional value at risk theory, this method constructs a reserve evaluation model by quantifying the risk of loss of load and current of renewable energy, which overrides the shortcuts of traditional statistical methods that cannot consider the coupling characteristics of time period. Based on the actual case in Guangdong, the effective management of power balance and new energy consumption risk of standby time-sharing assessment is verified, and the evaluation method for the reserve assessment of the new power system considering the risk of primary energy supply is provided with both reliability and economy.