Significance of “Living Environment Score” in Quantifying Attractiveness of Regions During Residence Selection

Japan’s conventional city planning is based on the assumption that population growth and urbanization will continue in the future. However, it is extremely likely that the population growth assumption will no longer hold in the future, so the city planning system is at a critical juncture. Notably, the development of compact cities maintains the quality of life in cities and administrative service efficiency even in the era of population decline. In order to make a city more compact through effective planning, municipalities should formulate policies encouraging relocation, such as developing urban areas with attractive living environments and the introduction of subsidies for relocation-associated expenses. Hence, a quantitative and objective index to assess the living environment of each area from the perspective of whether it corresponds to residents’ preferences is needed. The living environment score (LES) focuses on various living environment indices and takes into account the magnitude of the influence of these indices on residence selection in order to assess the overall attractiveness of an area as a residence. We analyzed population increases from 2000 to 2010 in the Tokyo metropolitan area and attempted to calculate the LES at both the census grid and local district levels. The results showed that there was a significant expected population increase tendency in regions with a high LES. However, the accuracy rate was around 60%, and further improvements are needed in order to use this as a basis for decision-making. Indices related to disaster safety have not been considered in the LES. Thus, when we verified the relationship between population-increase tendencies or the LES with disaster risk, it was suggested that population increases might continue in regions with flood risk or risks associated with dense urban areas. Disaster risk is something that people seek to minimize, and this should be considered as a property that is different from other living environment indices that should be pursued to an appropriate level. For the future work, it is imperative to improve the LES calculation method so that disaster risk can be reduced while improving accuracy.