Old Condominiums and Their Tendency to Be Rebuilt: A Case Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Condominiums are important housing stock in Japan, but they often need to be rebuilt. This research investigates the factors and spatial distribution of condominium rebuilding. To this end, data on rebuilt condominiums was integrated with data on old condominiums defined as the ones with old earthquake resistance standards. Using a probit model, the tendency of certain factors to contribute to rebuilding was assessed. Findings reveal that building age, land area, distance to the city center, number of housing units, and floor area possible for expansion are statistically significant, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies on the qualitative analysis of condominium rebuilding in Japan. When the marginal effects of the factors were calculated, a four-year increase in the average building age, for instance, increases the probability of rebuilding by 1.49 percentage point. We also confirmed that condominiums with high rebuild probability are concentrated in the western part of central Tokyo and are also likely to exist in suburban areas.