Energy Demand Model Towards Sustainable On-Road Transportation in Ho Chi Minh City

The transport sector is the largest emitter in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), accounting for 45% of the total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in 2021. Therefore, the energy demand transition in transportation from high carbon emission to low or zero emission sources plays a central role in the city’s green development. This paper studies the energy demand model for on-road vehicles—the primary mode of transport in the city, with significant emissions, diverse vehicle types, and many actors. Four alternative demand scenarios are prepared and analyzed using long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP): business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency (ENE), alternative fuel (ALF), and sustainable transition (SUT). The findings indicate that the ALF and SUT scenarios consume significantly less energy than the BAU and ENE. The SUT relative to the BAU contributes to a 56.25 billion kWh (41.6%) decrease in the total energy demand and 5,424 million USD (58.56%) fuel cost saving in 2050. Moreover, the GHG emissions under the SUT are only half of those under the BAU, thanks to the combination of energy efficiency, alternative fuel measures, and lower transportation demand growth.