Geopolitical Calculus of the Russian-Ukraine War: Human Displacement and the Evolving Migration Crisis
摘要
The Russian-Ukraine war has profoundly reshaped geopolitical dynamics, triggering one of the most severe humanitarian and migration crises of the twenty-first century. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, over eight million Ukrainians have fled their homeland, seeking refuge across Europe and beyond, while millions remain internally displaced. This chapter explores the geopolitical calculus behind the war, emphasizing the interplay between NATO’s strategic interests, migration governance, and the selective humanitarianism evident in international refugee policies. Unlike prior migration waves dominated by non-European asylum seekers, the Ukrainian crisis has prompted preferential treatment in host countries, exposing racial and political biases within global migration frameworks. Additionally, the conflict has spurred economic instability, supply chain disruptions, and secondary displacement from conflict-affected regions. The discussion highlights the historical ties between Russia and Ukraine, the role of imperial and Soviet legacies, and Cold War influences in shaping migration patterns.