Climate change is now a pressing reality significantly impacting the sociopolitical and environmental dynamics of Central Asia. This study examines the relationship between climate change, security vulnerabilities, and human migration, emphasizing how environmental degradation intensifies geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures, desertification, and water scarcity increasingly force communities to adapt or relocate, often leading to conflicts over land and water resources. The research analyzes how resource scarcity—especially disputes involving transboundary water bodies like the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers—heightens diplomatic tensions and socioeconomic instability. Additionally, the study identifies critical legal and policy gaps in protecting individuals displaced by climate-induced factors. By incorporating case studies, this research demonstrates the real-world implications of these challenges on governance, human rights, and regional stability. It advocates a comprehensive policy approach, integrating climate adaptation strategies, improved legal protections for displaced populations, and cooperative resource management. Enhancing regional collaboration and embedding climate resilience into security policies will be essential to mitigating long-term environmental risks in Central Asia. Ultimately, this study underscores the need for institutional reforms to address climate-induced migration and resource conflicts effectively.

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Security-Migration Nexus in Central Asia: Effects of Climate Change on Regional Stability

  • Gabriela Michael,
  • Anurag Sarthi

摘要

Climate change is now a pressing reality significantly impacting the sociopolitical and environmental dynamics of Central Asia. This study examines the relationship between climate change, security vulnerabilities, and human migration, emphasizing how environmental degradation intensifies geopolitical tensions. Rising temperatures, desertification, and water scarcity increasingly force communities to adapt or relocate, often leading to conflicts over land and water resources. The research analyzes how resource scarcity—especially disputes involving transboundary water bodies like the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers—heightens diplomatic tensions and socioeconomic instability. Additionally, the study identifies critical legal and policy gaps in protecting individuals displaced by climate-induced factors. By incorporating case studies, this research demonstrates the real-world implications of these challenges on governance, human rights, and regional stability. It advocates a comprehensive policy approach, integrating climate adaptation strategies, improved legal protections for displaced populations, and cooperative resource management. Enhancing regional collaboration and embedding climate resilience into security policies will be essential to mitigating long-term environmental risks in Central Asia. Ultimately, this study underscores the need for institutional reforms to address climate-induced migration and resource conflicts effectively.