A Novel SEIAISRD Model to Evaluate Pandemic Spreading

Starting in late March 2021, several countries have been massively promoting vaccination, sparking a global debate on whether containment or suppression strategies response to COVID-19 remain necessary. To evaluate the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and control strategies, a data-driven, discrete-time compartmental model is developed, incorporating the unparalleled characteristics of the epidemic. This model is then calibrated to country-level reported active cases, accumulative recovered and deceased cases, as well as daily new cases. Indeed, this paper applies the calibrated model to reconstruct the transmission dynamics of the outbreak over time, especially after the emergence of various vaccines. The results, combined, demonstrate that the current vaccines appear to be insufficient to eliminate this disease, despite the increasing number of vaccinations, highlighting that such control strategies or restrictions are not supposed to be completely lifted across the world. Finally, there is no denying that the proposed model and framework can be readily extended to other countries, states, regions, or organizations.