Research on the Relationship Among Digital Inclusive Finance, Household Consumption Expenditure, and Import and Export of Goods—An Empirical Analysis Based on Statistics from China

The establishment of new development pattern which is featured by dual circulation is a strategic deployment for China to seize the initiative in the future. Therefore, it is of vital importance to find out the tools, which can help to improve the quality of internal circulation and the level of external one, and put forward some corresponding advices for policy. Digital inclusive finance, resulting from rapid development of information technology and digital technology, has an obvious positive influence on the internal circulation. However, the influence of digital inclusive finance on the external circulation remains uncertain. Based on PVAR model and data from 2011 to 2021 in every province and city of China, this paper analyzes and discusses the dynamic relationship among digital inclusive finance, household consumption expenditure, and import and export of goods. The results indicate that (1) digital inclusive finance directly promotes import and export of goods. (2) Digital inclusive finance indirectly promotes import and export of goods through the increase in household consumption expenditure. Based on these findings, it is proposed to build the improvement of digital inclusive finance infrastructure more quickly, promote the establishment of a more comprehensive income distribution mechanism, and optimize the industrial structure of import and export.