Proposing Evacuation Route Selection Method Using Tsunami Arrival Time Probability as Advance Information

In addition to physical tsunami mitigation measures, software simulations can play a critical role in reducing human casualties from tsunamis. The method proposed in this study determines appropriate evacuation routes based on tsunami inundation simulations conducted using different wave sources to generate the time-series tsunami arrival probability distribution in the target area. The developed method searches for the shortest, lowest risk routes to evacuation shelters using the ever-changing tsunami arrival time probabilities as advance information. The adaptability of the proposed method was verified using a case study of a part of town A in Mie Prefecture, Japan. The results showed that the mortality rate decreased when evacuees used the low-risk routes calculated by the proposed method, especially when the evacuation did not begin until immediately before the start of inundation.