Modeling and Application of Transformer Degradation Development Law Based on Degradation Track

Transformer fault will cause great harm to the grid reliability, but the current condition evaluation guidelines can only make threshold judgment on the current condition quantity, lacking early warning criteria. In addition, it is difficult to analyze the degradation process and the dispersion of the late degradation using the commonly used prediction methods because there are few transformer fault cases. For this reason, this paper collects a large amount of field fault data, proposes the analysis method of transformer deterioration development law based on degradation track, and lays the foundation for determining the early warning criterion of transformer condition evaluation. Firstly, the degradation-based reliability modeling method and analysis process are summarized, and the most suitable modeling method is selected by balancing the advantages and disadvantages of each aspect. Then the application of each degradation model is analyzed from the theoretical level, and the degradation track model is determined to describe the transformer degradation development law. Finally, according to the statistical distribution of the field data to determine the state quantity note value, combined with the collected fault data to establish the transformer degradation track model and estimate the model parameters, and describe the application methods of degradation track model.