Analysis of the New Trend of Global Crude Oil Trade

In 2021, global crude oil demand is still under the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, with large-scale refining projects delayed and a wave of refinery shutdowns in Europe and the US, resulting in negative growth in global refining capacity for the first time in 33 years. As a result, total global crude oil trade declined for the third consecutive year in 2021, by 0.75 to 41.35 million bpd year-on-year. Among them, the Asia–Pacific region ends more than 20 years of crude oil import growth due to lower imports in China, but still maintains the world's top crude oil import region. Lower crude oil production in the US, combined with weak global demand for crude oil, has led to a slight increase in crude oil imports and the first decline in exports in six years. In 2021, OPEC + reduces production before increasing it, with total exports and market share recovering modestly. In 2022, the impact of the pandemic gradually subsides, global crude oil demand and supply steadily rebound, and total crude oil trade is expected to resume growth. In the first three quarters of 2022, total global crude oil trade rose 5% year-on-year to 39.57 million bpd, with Asia remaining at the center of global crude oil trade. In April 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted and global trade flows underwent a structural adjustment. The original Russian crude oil exports to the European region shifted to Asia, and the share of European imports of Russian crude oil fell significantly, turning to the Middle East, West Africa, the Americas and other resources increased rapidly. In the medium and long term, the impact of geopolitics on global crude oil trade has intensified, and the uncertainty of major oil-producing countries’ exports has increased; at the same time, the pace of world energy transition has accelerated, the peak of traditional energy demand may come early, and the existing trade pattern may usher in a new round of adjustment.