Global Energy Outlook in the Context of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In early 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has dealt another major blow to the global economy, which has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. The conflict had a profound impact on the global political and economic landscape and was particularly severe on the global energy market because Russia is an important oil and gas resource exporter. How will this impact affect global energy development? Will it violate global carbon neutrality goals? These are the questions that this paper aims to address. To this end, this paper, starting from the background of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, firstly analyzes the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global political economy, and secondly focuses on the impact of the conflict on global energy development, including the direct impact on the global oil and gas market and its expected direction, as well as the impact on the energy structure and energy transition process in various regions. The analysis concludes that the conflict has triggered a change in the global energy supply–demand landscape, where the US and Saudi Arabia, two major oil and gas producers, will have a significantly higher “energy voice,” while Russia will not be able to return to its former position in the sector due to the impact on its oil and gas production. The crisis has once again raised awareness of the importance of energy security in many countries, and under the goal of carbon neutrality, new energy is undoubtedly a more suitable option to reduce the country's dependence on fossil fuel imports. Although the conflict may have some impact on the process of green and low-carbon energy transition in the short term, this transition trend will not change in the long term.