Forecasting of Carbon Emissions in India Using (ARIMA) Time Series Predicting Approach

After China and the USA, India is the third highest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2). The research focuses on predicting carbon emissions in India using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The study uses time series data from 1980 to 2021 to develop and validate the ARIMA models. The results of the analysis show that the ARIMA models are able to effectively capture the trend and seasonality of carbon emissions in India. The study also uses the ARIMA models to forecast future carbon emissions for the period 2022–2030. The forecasted value of CO2 Emissions 3,616,149 (KT) as per ARIMA (0,2,1). The findings indicate that carbon emissions in India are likely to continue increasing in the future, despite efforts to reduce them. The research also investigates the impact of carbon emissions on renewable power generation in India. The study shows that the level of carbon emissions has a significant negative impact on renewable energy production, particularly solar and wind energy. The findings suggest that reducing carbon emissions is crucial for the growth and development of the renewable energy sector in India. The outcomes of this research have important consequences for decision-makers in government and stakeholders in the energy sector. The study highlights the need for effective policies and initiatives in order to lessen India's carbon footprint and encourage the growth of renewable energy sources. The ARIMA models developed in this study can serve as a valuable tool for forecasting carbon emissions and planning future energy policies in India.