Undertaking Scenario Analysis of the Diffusion of Car Sharing Services: A Case Study in Bangkok, Thailand

Car sharing services are effective at decreasing the number of privately owned cars in a region while satisfying citizens’ convenience. In this paper, we aim to develop a method for estimating the environmental impact change due to the diffusion of car sharing in the future. For this purpose, we assume two scenarios for comparison, i.e., business-as-usual (BaU) scenario and car sharing diffusion scenario. To allow for scenario analysis, we develop a model by combining a binomial logit model and life cycle assessment (LCA). In a case study of Bangkok, results revealed that the number of car sales and CO2 emissions in the car sharing diffusion scenario in 2030 were 20.6% and 18.9% lower than the BaU scenario, respectively. The sensitively analysis result showed that increasing the initial cost of private cars and shortening the travel time to the parking spot for car sharing were significant for car sharing diffusion.