Environmental Change and Geopolitical Tension in the Antarctic Treaty System

The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) has become in essential respects an environmental treaty regime, embodying an extensive collection of norms and processes for the protection of the environment of the Antarctic continent and the Southern Ocean which surrounds it. The most important of these is the 1991 Environmental Protocol. The Protocol effectively diffused geopolitical tensions over mining in Antarctica and designated Antarctica as a natural reserve, devoted to peace and science. However, Antarctica is now under threat from without, and is being transformed by human activities affecting multiple Earth systems, including the global climate. This chapter assesses the extent to which climate-induced change in Antarctica has, or will, become a source of tension within the ATS. To support this assessment, the discussion draws on the ATS experience with other forms of actual or proposed environmental change, with a focus on the ATS response to the mining question. It questions whether climate-induced change in the Antarctic will have a similar effect to other environmental threats in catalysing consensus and solidarity, or whether it may lead to an outbreak of new and unmanageable stresses that will undermine the agreement within the ATS and weaken its legitimacy within the international legal order.