Implications of Current Global Tensions on the Effectiveness of the Antarctic Treaty System

The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) has for over a half century provided a sound basis for international cooperation. It is currently subject to increased stress, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as tensions between China, the United States, and other global powers. The ATCM and CCAMLR, the two main Antarctic diplomatic bodies, continue to hold their annual meetings and accomplish much of their work. Science continues to be conducted across Antarctica, and there is no appreciable increased risk of armed conflict there. Yet, Antarctic diplomacy faces an unusually difficult period, primarily due to the Ukraine crisis, which has created a political divide among key states active in Antarctica and sown wider discord among international bodies globally. To consider the extent to which recent geopolitical tensions have changed relations in Antarctica, the successes and problems that existed before the current acute period of international tension need to be understood. Achieving agreement among numerous states in a consensus-based system was already difficult; the intrusion of new geopolitical factors has contributed negatively to the normal run of disagreements over Antarctic policy, making cooperation less assured and pointing to increasing challenges for the ATS in the years ahead.