Mining in Antarctica to 2048 and Beyond

Contemporary discussion about Antarctica often focuses on “big power competition” and can become mired in speculation about how the global geopolitical environment might play out in the Antarctic. Some commentary, especially regarding potential mining in Antarctica, incorrectly ascribes the year 2048 as a point at which the Antarctic Treaty can be renegotiated, or when the indefinite ban on Antarctic mining can be lifted. Leaving aside errors of interpretation, much of this discussion fails to analyse the history and evolution of the Antarctic Treaty System and the legal framework that governs the region. This chapter sets out Antarctica’s legal regime, especially as it relates to mining and mineral resource activities, and looks at potential challenges to the existing ban on mining. It also explores current global geopolitical and other pressures that affect the Antarctic Treaty System, the implications of these in the context of potential attempts to open up the region to mining, and implications for Antarctic regional security.