Globally, healthcare administrators are working to reduce healthcare costs without sacrificing the quality of service provided. The biggest portion of health expenses is related to hospitalization. Length of stay has a direct impact on the hospitalization cost and resource management. Researchers for the last few years are trying to find the relevant factors to accurately identify LOS. In this research, a strategy to forecast the number of hospitalization days in a community was developed using USA SPARCS 2017 de-identified data repository. The data is not individually identifiable. The dataset consists of 2,343,569 instances and 34 features. In this study, we are proposing a three stage model: admission, post admission, and discharge stage for an improved hospital length of stay prediction. These stage-wise models will help both the patient and hospital management to correctly predict LOS from the beginning of the hospitalization to the time of discharge. This study suggests a paradigm for predicting patient length of stay (LOS) using various machine learning (ML) and ensemble techniques. This stage-wise prediction will be performed using a weighted probability averaging ensemble model. The weights of the individual classifiers will be selected based on their performance through a grid search method. The proposed ensemble model has outperformed the individual base ML models. The proposed ensemble model has improved balanced classification performance and it improves across stages: admission to discharge. The discharge stage has the highest accuracy 0.9065 followed by the post admission stage with 0.8921 and the admission stage has the lowest among all 0.6824.

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A Comparative Study of Hospital Length of Stay Prediction of Indoor Patients for Admission, Post Admission, and Discharge Stage Data Using Machine Learning Algorithms

  • Somnath Ghosh,
  • Debotosh Bhattacharjee

摘要

Globally, healthcare administrators are working to reduce healthcare costs without sacrificing the quality of service provided. The biggest portion of health expenses is related to hospitalization. Length of stay has a direct impact on the hospitalization cost and resource management. Researchers for the last few years are trying to find the relevant factors to accurately identify LOS. In this research, a strategy to forecast the number of hospitalization days in a community was developed using USA SPARCS 2017 de-identified data repository. The data is not individually identifiable. The dataset consists of 2,343,569 instances and 34 features. In this study, we are proposing a three stage model: admission, post admission, and discharge stage for an improved hospital length of stay prediction. These stage-wise models will help both the patient and hospital management to correctly predict LOS from the beginning of the hospitalization to the time of discharge. This study suggests a paradigm for predicting patient length of stay (LOS) using various machine learning (ML) and ensemble techniques. This stage-wise prediction will be performed using a weighted probability averaging ensemble model. The weights of the individual classifiers will be selected based on their performance through a grid search method. The proposed ensemble model has outperformed the individual base ML models. The proposed ensemble model has improved balanced classification performance and it improves across stages: admission to discharge. The discharge stage has the highest accuracy 0.9065 followed by the post admission stage with 0.8921 and the admission stage has the lowest among all 0.6824.