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With the improvement of people’s living standards, the development of frozen and chilled goods transportation has also ushered in greater challenges. Therefore, accurate prediction of frozen and chilled goods transportation demand for fresh agricultural products holds significant practical importance. This investigation utilizes the GM (1,1) model to predict the transportation needs for frozen and chilled products in Shandong Province, starting with an analysis of the present scenario and projected trends in this sector. The GM (1,1) model was then engaged to estimate future demand for the transportation of frozen and chilled goods in Shandong Province from 2023 to 2032. The high prediction accuracy of the model was verified through a development coefficient test, residual test, and posterior error test. It effectively predicts the changing trend of frozen and chilled goods transportation demand and provides a source for subsequent planning of frozen and chilled goods transportation facilities, construction of cold storage, and transportation equipment in Shandong Province.

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Research on the Demand Prediction of Cold Chain Logistics of Agricultural Products in Shandong Province Based on Gray Prediction

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Jingyi Zhang,
  • Dehao Cao,
  • Huaqiong Liu

摘要

With the improvement of people’s living standards, the development of frozen and chilled goods transportation has also ushered in greater challenges. Therefore, accurate prediction of frozen and chilled goods transportation demand for fresh agricultural products holds significant practical importance. This investigation utilizes the GM (1,1) model to predict the transportation needs for frozen and chilled products in Shandong Province, starting with an analysis of the present scenario and projected trends in this sector. The GM (1,1) model was then engaged to estimate future demand for the transportation of frozen and chilled goods in Shandong Province from 2023 to 2032. The high prediction accuracy of the model was verified through a development coefficient test, residual test, and posterior error test. It effectively predicts the changing trend of frozen and chilled goods transportation demand and provides a source for subsequent planning of frozen and chilled goods transportation facilities, construction of cold storage, and transportation equipment in Shandong Province.