To strengthen the implementation of the “road-to-rail” policy, railway transport enterprises must accurately capture the sensitivity of freight demand characteristics to pricing policies, develop a more comprehensive freight pricing system, and effectively identify the demand elasticity of different freight products. This study collects and analyzes actual transport data, using freight volume weighting to construct a discrete choice model based on freight demand elasticity model within the context of road competition. Results show high accuracy in predicting freight transport demand and reveal sensitivity to cost and transport time. The elasticity calculations show that for coal, the cost elasticity of railway transport is significantly lower than its cross elasticity, indicating that higher road prices boost railway freight volume more than reduced railway prices. For food and beverages, the time elasticity of railway is significantly higher than that of road transport, suggesting that improving railway service quality will promote the shift of road freight to railway transport. Additionally, the rail market share rates for both types of goods are highly sensitive to transport time, indicating that railway transport enterprises should focus on improving service quality, transport speed, and timeliness in future operations to meet market demand and promote an increase in freight volume.

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Research on the Elasticity of Rail Freight Demand in the Context of Road Competition

  • Fangyuan Gong,
  • Chuanjun Jia,
  • Xu Wu,
  • Hanshuo Zhao

摘要

To strengthen the implementation of the “road-to-rail” policy, railway transport enterprises must accurately capture the sensitivity of freight demand characteristics to pricing policies, develop a more comprehensive freight pricing system, and effectively identify the demand elasticity of different freight products. This study collects and analyzes actual transport data, using freight volume weighting to construct a discrete choice model based on freight demand elasticity model within the context of road competition. Results show high accuracy in predicting freight transport demand and reveal sensitivity to cost and transport time. The elasticity calculations show that for coal, the cost elasticity of railway transport is significantly lower than its cross elasticity, indicating that higher road prices boost railway freight volume more than reduced railway prices. For food and beverages, the time elasticity of railway is significantly higher than that of road transport, suggesting that improving railway service quality will promote the shift of road freight to railway transport. Additionally, the rail market share rates for both types of goods are highly sensitive to transport time, indicating that railway transport enterprises should focus on improving service quality, transport speed, and timeliness in future operations to meet market demand and promote an increase in freight volume.