Since 2015, bus ridership in China’s megacities and their satellite cities has exhibited continuous decline. In contrast, there has been an observable increase in bus ridership interchange with metro services. This trend signifies a fundamental transformation in the role of buses within the urban transport system of satellite cities, highlighting an urgent need for a comprehensive study of the underlying laws and mechanisms driving these changes. This research focuses on Jiading, a satellite city of Shanghai, employing the classical Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model and the theory of demand elasticity to elucidate the determinants affecting total bus ridership and bus ridership interchange with metro services. The findings reveal that the primary factor contributing to the reduction in total bus ridership is the deterioration of bus service levels in Jiading’s high development intensity areas. Conversely, it is intriguing to note that urban development in regions with lower development intensity fosters an increase in bus ridership interchange with metro services. In conclusion, this study proposes a near-term development strategy for Jiading district, tailored to various levels of land use, based on the mechanisms elucidated by the model.