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Efficient funding and supervision of higher education institutions are crucial for promoting intellectual advancement, stimulating economic progress, and guaranteeing high-quality education. This study analyzes the financial performance and predicts the future financial outcomes of Tashkent State University of Economics using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model. The purpose is to provide valuable insights for strategic financial planning. The study utilizes an econometric methodology to examine the rate of growth in TSUE's overall income from 2008 to 2022. Unit-root tests were performed to evaluate the stationarity of the time series data, followed by the identification and estimate of ARIMA 110 model parameters. The model was subsequently employed to anticipate TSUE's financial performance from 2023 to 2027, demonstrating a strong framework for forecasting substantial revenue increases. The estimate predicts that the revenue will increase by 13.85% in 2023 and then remain steady within the range of 12.13–13.27% in the following years. These estimates offer a dependable foundation for strategic financial planning and allocation of resources. The results emphasize the fluidity of Tashkent State University of Economics’ financial performance, which is shaped by both internal and external economic forces. This study highlights the need of ongoing financial monitoring and the use of econometric models such as ARIMA to improve the financial stability of educational institutions. These models can assist in strategic planning and decision-making processes.

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Economic Forecasting in Higher Education: ARIMA Model Application for Financial Planning at Tashkent State University of Economics

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Samariddin Makhmudov,
  • Gulshat Hojabaevna Karlibaeva,
  • Zokir Mamadiyarov,
  • Shoh-Jakhon Khamdamov,
  • Akram Akbarovich Yadgarov,
  • Iroda Rashid qizi Ibragimova,
  • Zuxra Tadjibayevna Narbekova,
  • Durdona Shuxrat qizi Jumadullayeva

摘要

Efficient funding and supervision of higher education institutions are crucial for promoting intellectual advancement, stimulating economic progress, and guaranteeing high-quality education. This study analyzes the financial performance and predicts the future financial outcomes of Tashkent State University of Economics using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model. The purpose is to provide valuable insights for strategic financial planning. The study utilizes an econometric methodology to examine the rate of growth in TSUE's overall income from 2008 to 2022. Unit-root tests were performed to evaluate the stationarity of the time series data, followed by the identification and estimate of ARIMA 110 model parameters. The model was subsequently employed to anticipate TSUE's financial performance from 2023 to 2027, demonstrating a strong framework for forecasting substantial revenue increases. The estimate predicts that the revenue will increase by 13.85% in 2023 and then remain steady within the range of 12.13–13.27% in the following years. These estimates offer a dependable foundation for strategic financial planning and allocation of resources. The results emphasize the fluidity of Tashkent State University of Economics’ financial performance, which is shaped by both internal and external economic forces. This study highlights the need of ongoing financial monitoring and the use of econometric models such as ARIMA to improve the financial stability of educational institutions. These models can assist in strategic planning and decision-making processes.