Climate change is complex and a burning global issue affecting various aspects of our planet including the hydrological cycle. Various tools are available for mimicking the hydrological cycle and hydrological modelling is one of them. Hydrological modelling is the most comprehensive and suitable approach for understanding the response of any watershed. HEC-HMS is one of the widely accepted and extensively used model builder in modern era. This paper aims to utilise the abilities of HEC-HMS model for evaluation of climate change scenarios for the Shakkar River Watershed (SRW), which is a part of Narmada Basin. The model has taken into account factors like temperature, precipitation, evaporation rates, soil characteristics and land use land cover. The HMS model setup is done using SRTM 30 m DEM data. The watershed is divided into four subwatersheds. Soil Moisture Accounting method is used as loss model and Clark unit hydrograph method is selected for transform component. For routing the flow through reach time lag method is used. The model is simulated with IMD gridded precipitation dataset and has been calibrated for the period of 2008–2012. Model has been validated for the period of 2013–2015. The NSE of model is observed as 0.694 for calibration period and 0.674 for validation period. In order to assess the impacts of climate change, thirteen GCM models have been utilised for intercomparison and getting an ensembled mean of watershed response under two different scenarios SSP 2.4.5 and SSP 5.8.5 in each GCM. Model simulations have been run for historic/baseline period (1961–1990), present period (1991–2019), Near term (2020–2040), Mid-term (2041–2070) and End term period (2071–2100). Changes in average daily flows, maximum annual peak flows and average annual peak flows have also been considered for the SRW. The results from this study will be helpful for developing effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change on water resources management and planning at watershed scale.

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Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Hydrology of Shakkar River Watershed Using Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS)

  • S. Mandloi,
  • T. Thomas,
  • K. V. Jayakumar,
  • A. K. Lohani,
  • L. Patel,
  • R. Pathak

摘要

Climate change is complex and a burning global issue affecting various aspects of our planet including the hydrological cycle. Various tools are available for mimicking the hydrological cycle and hydrological modelling is one of them. Hydrological modelling is the most comprehensive and suitable approach for understanding the response of any watershed. HEC-HMS is one of the widely accepted and extensively used model builder in modern era. This paper aims to utilise the abilities of HEC-HMS model for evaluation of climate change scenarios for the Shakkar River Watershed (SRW), which is a part of Narmada Basin. The model has taken into account factors like temperature, precipitation, evaporation rates, soil characteristics and land use land cover. The HMS model setup is done using SRTM 30 m DEM data. The watershed is divided into four subwatersheds. Soil Moisture Accounting method is used as loss model and Clark unit hydrograph method is selected for transform component. For routing the flow through reach time lag method is used. The model is simulated with IMD gridded precipitation dataset and has been calibrated for the period of 2008–2012. Model has been validated for the period of 2013–2015. The NSE of model is observed as 0.694 for calibration period and 0.674 for validation period. In order to assess the impacts of climate change, thirteen GCM models have been utilised for intercomparison and getting an ensembled mean of watershed response under two different scenarios SSP 2.4.5 and SSP 5.8.5 in each GCM. Model simulations have been run for historic/baseline period (1961–1990), present period (1991–2019), Near term (2020–2040), Mid-term (2041–2070) and End term period (2071–2100). Changes in average daily flows, maximum annual peak flows and average annual peak flows have also been considered for the SRW. The results from this study will be helpful for developing effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change on water resources management and planning at watershed scale.