A Rainfall-Induced Landslide (RIL) is one of the most destructive disasters in hilly regions causing loss of lives and livestock, damage to agricultural lands, and destruction of properties, infrastructure and communication facilities. Landslides also add to the woes of the affected communities by injuries and loss of livelihood and result in serious economic losses. Incidences and impacts of landslides are increasing worldwide due to anthropogenic factors manifested in rapid development, deforestation and urbanization on one hand, and impacts of climate change, predominantly perceived in altered patterns of rainfall, on the other. Rainfall affects slope stability by way of increased groundwater infiltration and pore pressure, and imbalance between shear stress and resistance in soil mass on sloping terrains. The hill district of Dima Hasao of Assam is one of the regions of Northeast India severely affected by numerous landslides mostly during monsoon rains. In this study, statistical analyses were undertaken to detect changes, if any, in intensity-frequency-duration characteristics of rainfall over the past 83 years by using hourly gridded precipitation data sourced from the reanalysis database of the ECMWF, and to find point biserial correlation, if any, between antecedent rainfall and landslide occurrences by developing an inventory of landslides of the study area covering the Dima Hasao District over the past seven years and using the precipitation data of those years. The results indicate a linkage between increased landslide and coincident rainfall events, and point to the detrimental impact of climate change on RILs in the study area. This study shows the importance of antecedent rainfall that needs to be considered together with physiographic factors as determinants of landslide events and would be helpful in creating a landslide hazard map of a study area for disaster prevention under a changing climate.

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Impact of Climate Change on Landslide Occurrence: A Case Study of Dima Hasao District of Northeast India

  • Dibyajyoti Saikia,
  • Monomoy Goswami

摘要

A Rainfall-Induced Landslide (RIL) is one of the most destructive disasters in hilly regions causing loss of lives and livestock, damage to agricultural lands, and destruction of properties, infrastructure and communication facilities. Landslides also add to the woes of the affected communities by injuries and loss of livelihood and result in serious economic losses. Incidences and impacts of landslides are increasing worldwide due to anthropogenic factors manifested in rapid development, deforestation and urbanization on one hand, and impacts of climate change, predominantly perceived in altered patterns of rainfall, on the other. Rainfall affects slope stability by way of increased groundwater infiltration and pore pressure, and imbalance between shear stress and resistance in soil mass on sloping terrains. The hill district of Dima Hasao of Assam is one of the regions of Northeast India severely affected by numerous landslides mostly during monsoon rains. In this study, statistical analyses were undertaken to detect changes, if any, in intensity-frequency-duration characteristics of rainfall over the past 83 years by using hourly gridded precipitation data sourced from the reanalysis database of the ECMWF, and to find point biserial correlation, if any, between antecedent rainfall and landslide occurrences by developing an inventory of landslides of the study area covering the Dima Hasao District over the past seven years and using the precipitation data of those years. The results indicate a linkage between increased landslide and coincident rainfall events, and point to the detrimental impact of climate change on RILs in the study area. This study shows the importance of antecedent rainfall that needs to be considered together with physiographic factors as determinants of landslide events and would be helpful in creating a landslide hazard map of a study area for disaster prevention under a changing climate.