Changing Dynamics of Extreme Precipitation Events in Upper Indus Basin
摘要
The Hindu Kush Himalayan region, a crucial geo-ecological region, comprises one of the most important mountain systems in the world. The Indus River originates in this region and feeds over 270 million people across six countries, including India. In this study, we (i) investigated precipitation extremes trends and (ii) studied dry and wet spells in the Upper Indus Basin. The analysis of extreme events follows World Meteorological Organization guidelines on analysing extremes, and ETCCDI climate change indices are used. The study covers 1901–2019 using gridded data from the India Meteorological Department. The analysis depicts the intensification of droughts, which is generally associated with significant decreasing trends in the lower quantiles. A significant trend in the higher quantile indicates an increasing pattern of extreme precipitation events. There is a decrease in lower elevation regions in high quantiles of the winter season and an increase at higher elevations. Increasing in both scenarios causes skewness in the precipitation distribution, affecting water availability and management. The results of this study reveal the hidden trend in extreme events in the world’s most susceptible climate region.