Analysis of Flash Droughts Across Indian Mainland: A Comparison Between CMIP6 Simulations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data
摘要
Flash droughts (FDs) are distinguished from conventional droughts by their short duration and rapid onset characteristics. This phenomenon has significant implications for the agricultural sector as it can quickly deplete soil moisture levels, hindering crop growth within a short period. This study aims to examine the representation of FDs across the Indian mainland using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) utilizing data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are part of the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Considering the availability of all the variables necessary to calculate Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), which are essential for the computation of ESI, we have utilized a set of 5 GCMs. In this study, we have considered a historical period spanning from 1950 to 2014, which is divided into two distinct epochs, 1950–1981 and 1982–2014, to investigate the influence of the global climate regime shift on FD events that occurred in the 1980s. The observations from the GCM simulations are also compared with the reanalysis data obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis (5th generation) for Land (ERA5-Land) dataset. This study thoroughly examines the intermodal spread of spatio-temporal features of FD events indicated in CMIP6. Additionally, the study offers a detailed comparison with the representation of FD events in the reanalysis dataset, which will be beneficial in implementing climate-resilient policies.