Tropical cyclones are considered as one of non-nuclear natural hazards. They pose major threat to lives and properties due to their extreme winds developed by low-pressure system followed by abnormal rise in sea level, rainfall and extreme flooding. Cyclones imposed surges and their analysis is the prerequisite for planning and designing of any coastal structure for arriving reliable estimates on safe grade elevation especially for nuclear power plants. Understanding the impacts of changes over an area in terms of frequency and intensity of cyclones has gained importance nowadays for any development activity along the coast. Hence, the appraisal of causal factors in bringing about changes in surge magnitudes is inevitable. The study aimed at estimating the surges at a location 12 nautical miles from the main sea in Thane Creek by analysing different cyclones for different parameters like size, intensity, speed, angle of approach, proximity of landfall and phase of tide at the time of occurrence of cyclones. The study also deals with the impact factors for the attenuation of wave energy nearby coastal site using high-resolution grids. A nested model using Mike software has been developed and validated against existing and known cyclone conditions. A wind tool of Mike software was used for generating the gradient winds as an input to the fully deterministic model for estimating the surges. The model results revealed that the direction of approach played a major role in elevating the surge and Manning's roughness in attenuating the wave energy.

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Factors Influencing Changes in Estimates of Surges Due to Cyclones

  • B. Gopikrishna

摘要

Tropical cyclones are considered as one of non-nuclear natural hazards. They pose major threat to lives and properties due to their extreme winds developed by low-pressure system followed by abnormal rise in sea level, rainfall and extreme flooding. Cyclones imposed surges and their analysis is the prerequisite for planning and designing of any coastal structure for arriving reliable estimates on safe grade elevation especially for nuclear power plants. Understanding the impacts of changes over an area in terms of frequency and intensity of cyclones has gained importance nowadays for any development activity along the coast. Hence, the appraisal of causal factors in bringing about changes in surge magnitudes is inevitable. The study aimed at estimating the surges at a location 12 nautical miles from the main sea in Thane Creek by analysing different cyclones for different parameters like size, intensity, speed, angle of approach, proximity of landfall and phase of tide at the time of occurrence of cyclones. The study also deals with the impact factors for the attenuation of wave energy nearby coastal site using high-resolution grids. A nested model using Mike software has been developed and validated against existing and known cyclone conditions. A wind tool of Mike software was used for generating the gradient winds as an input to the fully deterministic model for estimating the surges. The model results revealed that the direction of approach played a major role in elevating the surge and Manning's roughness in attenuating the wave energy.