The Development of Land-Use-Based High-Resolution Spatial Global Biodiversity Damage Factors in LCIA
摘要
Our planet is currently confronted with a significant challenge of ecosystem disturbance, leading to a loss of biodiversity on a global scale. In previous studies within the field of life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), the inclusion of biodiversity loss in the endpoint categories has been proposed. However, there still remains a substantial research gap between LCIA and ecology. Therefore, in this study, we utilized species distribution models based on ecological predictions of habitat change, combined with land-use data for the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario, to model the distribution of 160 species from four different biotic groups. After predicting the future distribution of species habitats, we established species damage factors by creating spatial potentially disappeared fraction (PDF). Our results indicate that under future land-use change scenarios, the four taxa and 160 species all experience varying degrees of loss on a global scale. Particularly, some underdeveloped regions, including South Africa, face higher risks and greater challenges with biodiversity loss. It is worth noting that agricultural land shows high-loss hotspots in South Africa under different land-use effects, which is closely related to the increasing demand for agricultural land due to population growth in the region.