In recent years, the world has been affected by climate change, so countries have set net-zero carbon emission goals and reduced greenhouse gas emissions through carbon reduction policies. In 2022, Taiwan will amend the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act, adding the 2050 net zero carbon emission target into the law. Taiwan’s greenhouse gas emissions caused by electricity production account for more than 60%. Therefore, Taiwan’s energy department is actively planning a low-carbon energy path, including expecting to replace coal-fired power plants with natural gas power plants and to increase the proportion of natural gas power plants to 50% of power generation in 2025. It is expected that by 2050, natural gas power plants can be combined with hydrogen energy and CCUS technology to achieve the zero-emission goal of natural gas power plants, and with renewable energy power generation to achieve the goal of net zero carbon emissions in electricity. For this reason, this study expects to evaluate the impact of natural gas power plants on the national economy under the net-zero path. Although there are previous literatures evaluating the cost-effectiveness of thermal power plants in Taiwan, the time is long, and Taiwan’s low-carbon energy path and net-zero carbon have not been considered. Therefore, this study will use the input–output model to analyze the economic impact of changes in natural gas prices in the future under the transformation of electricity from coal to natural gas in Taiwan, so as to assist the Taiwan government to examine the suitability of the future low-carbon energy transition. This study can therefore contribute to foster the natural gas power plants in Taiwan with both characteristics of net-zero transition and sustainable innovation.

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Impact Assessment of Low-Carbon Electricity Transition by Applying Input–Output Analysis: A Case Study of the Impacts on Natural Gas Power Plants in Taiwan

  • Ping-Hung Chen,
  • Yuh-Ming Lee

摘要

In recent years, the world has been affected by climate change, so countries have set net-zero carbon emission goals and reduced greenhouse gas emissions through carbon reduction policies. In 2022, Taiwan will amend the Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Act, adding the 2050 net zero carbon emission target into the law. Taiwan’s greenhouse gas emissions caused by electricity production account for more than 60%. Therefore, Taiwan’s energy department is actively planning a low-carbon energy path, including expecting to replace coal-fired power plants with natural gas power plants and to increase the proportion of natural gas power plants to 50% of power generation in 2025. It is expected that by 2050, natural gas power plants can be combined with hydrogen energy and CCUS technology to achieve the zero-emission goal of natural gas power plants, and with renewable energy power generation to achieve the goal of net zero carbon emissions in electricity. For this reason, this study expects to evaluate the impact of natural gas power plants on the national economy under the net-zero path. Although there are previous literatures evaluating the cost-effectiveness of thermal power plants in Taiwan, the time is long, and Taiwan’s low-carbon energy path and net-zero carbon have not been considered. Therefore, this study will use the input–output model to analyze the economic impact of changes in natural gas prices in the future under the transformation of electricity from coal to natural gas in Taiwan, so as to assist the Taiwan government to examine the suitability of the future low-carbon energy transition. This study can therefore contribute to foster the natural gas power plants in Taiwan with both characteristics of net-zero transition and sustainable innovation.