To accurately predict the distribution of intercity railway passenger flow in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this study investigates the spatial influencing factors of urban agglomerations and their impact on travel distribution. Two models are developed: a travel distribution model based on spatial interweaving and a modal share model based on generalized travel cost. Firstly, the gravity model is introduced, and a structural equation model using urban economic indicators is established to calculate at the city level. The concept of spatial interweaving in urban agglomerations is proposed, and a city spatial interweaving model is established. Then, the gravity model is adjusted by considering spatial interweaving as a parameter. By predicting travel for different purposes, the total travel distribution within the urban agglomeration is calculated, and the railway travel distribution between cities is determined using the modal share model. Finally, taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study, this model is used to forecast the future passenger flow distribution of the intercity railway in the region.