15-Minute Cities: A Systems Thinking Analysis of a New Urban Development Framework

The 15-minute City, an innovative urban model, emerged prominently during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, capturing the attention of urban planners and policymakers. Rooted in principles of proximity, sustainability, and health, this model envisions a post-pandemic world where all essential services are accessible within a 15-minute travel distance (walking or biking) from every household. These services encompass groceries, medical facilities, childcare, education, employment, and other daily necessities, contributing to the creation of smaller neighbourhood cities within cities. While the concept of a well serviced dense urban lifestyle is not novel and has been integral to various cities globally, the 15-minute City framework offers a conceptual shift to enhance city planning and elevate overall quality of life. Serving as a guiding tool, it holds the potential for widespread applicability across diverse geographical landscapes. This research employs a Systems Thinking lens, using an Agent-Based Approach, to comprehensively analyse the ‘Conceptual and Global 15-minute City Framework’ and assess its effectiveness, opportunities, and limitations, as a model for sustainable urban development. Furthermore, it envisions a future system of a ‘Comprehensive Proximity-Urbanism Framework’ to support the real-world implementation of 15-minute Cities across varied socio-cultural, economic, and political contexts. The analytical tools used include a DSRP Analysis (Distinctions, Systems, Relationships, Perspectives), a POSIWID Analysis (Purpose of the System is What it Does), and a CAS Analysis (Complex Adaptive System) of the system. Adopting a systems thinking approach allows for a methodical identification of blind spots inherent in this conceptual and global framework. This chapter reflects on the recent scholarly discussions surrounding the 15-minute City framework to critically analyse its real-world feasibility. In addition, to ground the research and analysis in context the research includes two case study cities. The first case study analyses Dubai’s proposed 20-minute City initiative, while the second case study examines Barcelona’s 15-minute City analysis of its existing urban morphology. By adopting this holistic approach, the chapter aims to contribute to the ongoing discourse surrounding urban planning paradigms, shedding light on the viability and adaptability of the 15-minute City framework in shaping the cities of the future.