Climate Change: Projections and Its Possible Impact on Soybean
摘要
The participating member nations in 2015 convention of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) decided to limit the increase in global average temperature to significantly less than 2.0 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. Projections of climate patterns throughout the twenty-first century indicate diverse impacts across the world. The implications of these climate projections for soybean production are of paramount significance. This study contributes to our comprehension of climate change’s repercussions on production and farm management by projecting the potential impacts on soybean yields. These projections are derived under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), including 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, as well as considering shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) like SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5. Several factors constrain soybean productivity, the primary concern being its reliance on rainfall and elevated temperatures. The future trajectory of climate change is expected to have a significant impact on soybean production. The magnitude of variations in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels from baseline conditions shall play a crucial role in determining the extent of these impacts. A validated module of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), known as GROPGRO, and other crop simulation models could be used to simulate soybean yield. This simulation encompasses both historical climate data and projected climate scenarios generated by multiple general circulation models (GCMs).