Expected Changes in Aridity Land Degradation and Climate Risks to the Coastal State of Andhra Pradesh, South India and Road Map to Resilience

Climate change risks are expected to aggravate in natural and human ecosystems particularly in coastal areas of India. The present study endeavors to project changes in sea level and aridity conditions in the Andhra Pradesh, South India under the IPCC high and medium emission scenarios RCP 8.5 and 4.5 respectively. Andhra Pradesh has a coastline of 974 kms. The meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitations were used to create De Martonne Aridity Index, for assessing the spatial distribution of aridity. Model projections generated by HADGEM-ES model at 25 km resolution shows that aridity may be aggravated for the already arid and semi-arid tracks of northwest part of Andhra Pradesh. However, in the south eastern parts of the state, rising wetting trend was noted. Hence, a greater number of heat stress and extreme wet days may occur in these areas. In order to project the rise in sea level at local level, a climate and sea level rise simulator model output based on IPCC AR5 has been employed under different emission scenarios. Sea level may rise in the Andhra coast by 0.77 m, 0.89 m, and 1.16 m under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 carbon pollution scenario respectively by 2100 and projected to further rise by 2.26 m, 2.64 m, 3.66 m by the year 2200 under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 respectively inundating thickly populated coastal areas and major port cities in and around Visakhapatnam. It indicates the need to have robust and resilient action plans to tackle the combined challenge for meeting the water demands of the exponentially growing population. Multi-hazard risk reductions strategies must be envisaged to achieve Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). NITI Aayog in India is issuing guidelines to the planning departments in the state governments, to undertake, identification of SDG and INDC focal points in all sectors to have inclusive sustainable development of all sectors.