The Impacts of Historical and Future Climate Change Projections on the Outdoor Thermal Comfort Patterns of Auckland, New Zealand
摘要
Improving outdoor thermal comfort is a critical aspect of enhancing the quality of outdoor spaces in various urban contexts. Despite Auckland, New Zealand, having a moderate climate, projections based on various Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCPs) suggest a significant future warming trend for the city. Analysing outdoor thermal comfort patterns and understanding the influence of urban contexts on microclimates becomes vital to mitigate potential adverse impacts on future thermal comfort. In this research, Auckland University of Technology (AUT) was selected as a case study. We analysed outdoor thermal comfort patterns using historical data from 2000 to 2022 for both summer and winter, employing the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) index. Additionally, we examined predicted future climate patterns based on RCP 4.5 (a mid-range scenario where greenhouse gas concentrations stabilize by 2100) and RCP 8.5 (a ‘business as usual’ scenario with increasing greenhouse gas emissions) for the near future (2040), mid-future (2090), and far future (2110). The results indicate an anticipated increase in the thermal comfort index for both summer and winter under both RCP scenarios. However, in the more concerning scenario, the average outdoor thermal comfort is projected to decrease from 24 ℃ to 29 ℃ in summer and from 13.5 ℃ to 18 ℃ in winter. This paper highlights the significance of considering predicted future climate patterns in designing new or renovating existing urban areas to create more liveable outdoor spaces and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on outdoor lives.