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This paper study the ARIMA model to anticipate crude oil and petroleum product output and imports from 1987 to 2022 and also forecasted the same variables for the next five years, the study reveals that India's crude oil production is predicted to fall continuously over the next five years, but petroleum products and lubricants production is expected to rise steadily. Concurrently, imports of both crude oil and petroleum products and lubricants are expected to climb gradually over the same period, offering significant insights for energy sector decision-making and helping the development of a sustainable energy system.

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Forecasting Crude Oil and Petroleum Oil and Lubricants Production and Imports Using ARIMA Model

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • N. Chandan Babu,
  • Chakravadhanula Naga Pranav,
  • L. Ganesh,
  • Pasupuleti Triveni Nagamani

摘要

This paper study the ARIMA model to anticipate crude oil and petroleum product output and imports from 1987 to 2022 and also forecasted the same variables for the next five years, the study reveals that India's crude oil production is predicted to fall continuously over the next five years, but petroleum products and lubricants production is expected to rise steadily. Concurrently, imports of both crude oil and petroleum products and lubricants are expected to climb gradually over the same period, offering significant insights for energy sector decision-making and helping the development of a sustainable energy system.