Insights from CMIP6 for Pollution Potential Over IGP
摘要
Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) is a well-known global hotspot for particulate pollution which can be partly attributed to its unfavourable meteorology. Its strategic location in the Indian sub-continent does not favour atmospheric dispersion during the cold seasons. The pollution potential is modulated by the meteorology over a region, which can primarily be explained by the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and near-surface wind speed (NSWS). The anthropogenic climate change might influence the assimilative capacity of the atmosphere due to the changes in these meteorological variables. The model projections provide crucial insights into these changes in past and future scenarios. In this regard, this study aims to understand the futuristic changes in the meteorological parameters over the IGP using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), for the SSP 245 scenario during the period of 2015–2050. The ERA5 reanalysis data are used for the model validation for the period of 2015–2021. Out of the seven models used in the study, the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM5) shows good agreement with the ERA5. It indicates a potential increase in favourable meteorology in the near future for the winter season which might be conducive to the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants in the future favouring clean air conditions.