Production, Marketing, Sustainability, and Price Forecast of Potato in the Gran Mercado Mayorista de Lima - Peru

In Peru, about 711 000 people are engaged in potato production on more than 338 857 hectares of land, growing several varieties such as canchán, blanca, única, amarilla, tumbay, huamantanga, yungay, peruanita, negra andina, tomasa, perricholi and huayro. In 2019, 330 000 hectares were planted with an average yield of 16.2 tons per hectare, while average consumption was 91 kg per person, showing an upward trend. The supply of this product is seasonal; in 2022, May was the month with the highest concentration, reaching 24% of the total, followed by 20% in April. The Gran Mercado Mayorista de Lima, located in Santa Anita Lima, Peru, plays a crucial role in the distribution of agricultural products and food in the city, acting as an intermediary between farmers, producers, and wholesale buyers. Simple regression models were used, which conform to the economic theory that increases in supply, when they exceed demand, tend to reduce prices. The statistical consistency of the models is relative, as they all achieve the overall significance of the regressions, as well as the significance tests of parameter estimates. The coefficient of determination (R2) takes on a referential importance. However, autocorrelation problems persist despite the use of techniques to correct for them, raising the question of whether the result based on market forces may be more relevant to the variables used.