Climate Change and Monsoon Rainstorms
摘要
This study presents a brief analysis of observed changes in monsoon rainstorms for the period 1959–2021 over Western India (WI), particularly suitable for the Indian states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, using the gridded rainfall dataset from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5).This analysis also uses the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation dataset for the period 2000–2021. The results of our study indicate that the duration of monsoon rainstorms over WI have risen since 1990s, together with a distinct enhancement in rainstorm days occurring mostly during the years of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events in the tropical Indian Ocean, e.g., a remarkably long rainstorm event persisted for 17 days (i.e., 26 July–11 August) during the extreme pIOD of 2019. The sustenance of monsoon rainstorm days over WI during pIOD events is supported by the background large-scale circulation anomalies associated with intensified cross-equatorial transport of moisture from the south-eastern tropical Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic vortices in the lower and mid-tropospheric levels over the Indian subcontinent. While state-of-the-art climate model projections suggest higher likelihood of extreme pIODs in the future, they also raise several implicative questions on the role of extreme pIODs on organized monsoon convection, scale interactive processes, among others, on the future monsoon rainstorms in the backdrop of increasing water vapour in a globally warming climate. Addressing these challenging scientific questions warrants comprehensive modelling and diagnostic investigations in the future.