The Interrelation of Domestic and International Politics in Conflict Zones: An Approach to the Attitude Change of Lebanese Citizens Through Natural Experiments

Did the sharp increase of Syrian refugees bring on Lebanese attitudinal changes toward Hezbollah, the strongest militia against Israel? Hezbollah is not only a military force but also a political party supported by Iran, an ally of the Asad administration. The answer to the question makes it clear a part of the correlation between domestic and international politics in a battlefield. We want to investigate a more general question, the mechanism to work foreign support escalates the outbreak of a conflict. The study regards the huge influx of Syrian immigrants as a natural experiment to measure the attitudinal changes to Hezbollah among the citizens by the difference in differences estimation. The empirical results indicate that the huge influx of refugees brought on increasing supporters toward Hezbollah because of the demand for the restoration of social order. The citizens are forced to expect power of the strongest militia under the perils of regional disorder.