Super Spreader Events and the Spread of COVID: Evidence from India

This paper examines the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in India with particular reference to the role played by super-spreader events like election rallies. The paper makes use of the S-shaped Gompertz curve for simulating the dynamics of diffusion of COVID-19 in different states of India. Two different models—dynamics of COVID-19 diffusion per se and a more sophisticated synthetic control method—are used to evaluate the role of outdoor election rallies in propagating the spread of the infection in COVID’s second wave. We find little statistical evidence in support of a positive relationship between elections and the spread of the virus.