A Review of Tools to Imagine Future of Skills: Lessons for a SIDS

In this dynamic world, the future of higher education, skills, and jobs is intricately connected. Such a future warrants a collaborative, creative, strategic, and forward-looking approach to navigating the rapid changes and emerging trends in the world of work. The skills system that encompasses higher education institutions should respond to the uncertainties by being proactive, adaptable, and flexible. The focus of this chapter is to review generative foresight methodologies and approaches to better anticipate and prepare for the future in light of uncertainties (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA) world) and disruptions hovering over the skills system. The literature points to a spectrum of tools that can be deployed ranging from human-centred ones to scenario planning or future wheel or backcasting to have a clearer view into the future. A review of the affordances of the tools can offer lessons for their application in higher education in the context of a Small Island Developing State (SIDS). These tools can help individuals, organisations, and governments to identify potential trends and disruptions in skills, evaluate their potential impact, and develop and implement strategies in the face of change. While several foresight approaches such as Scenario Planning, Trend Analysis, Delphi Method, Backcasting, Environmental Scanning, and Futures Wheel can be gauged from the literature, their application in skills system in SIDS context is scant. SIDS have been historically characterised by their demographical features of smallness and vulnerabilities (first generation research) and deficiencies in relation to larger and advanced social systems (second generation SIDS research), which require them to find innovative ways to leverage their human capital and knowledge resources (third generation) to foresee the future and better respond to it (Mariaye and Samuel, 2016). By identifying potential future trends and uncertainties in a unique SIDS context, institutions can better understand the future landscape and develop strategies to adapt and thrive in different likely scenarios. This agenda is motivated by a quest to reposition SIDS, within the knowledge economy with education, skills, and knowledge as key drivers of economic development. Against this backdrop, this chapter aims to draw insights from a literature review of existing research methods in the field of foresight to explore their application to the skills system in a SIDS context. It is expected that lessons learnt in the SIDS context can provide valuable takeaways for sustainable skills development.