Population Growth and Urbanization in Vietnam

This study provides an empirical analysis of the established trends in population growth and urbanization in Vietnam. It aims to offer insights into underlying implications of Vietnam’s changing demographic landscape, and its correlation with urbanization and sustainable development. The paper demonstrates that while the country’s population has been growing at a slower pace, Vietnam’s urbanization rate has been increasing rapidly. The stylized facts of urbanization’s drivers include natural population growth, inter-provincial migration owing to industrialization, socio-economic and geo-political factors, as well as statistical effects derived from Vietnam government’s administrative urban planning policies. Adopting a panel data regression approach, the analysis examines the correlation between urbanization and economic development in Vietnam’s 63 provinces during the 2007–2022 period. The results show that rapid urbanization and slowing population growth pose several development policy implications for the country. These include aging population, urban labor market quality, and labor supply–demand imbalance, as well as navigating rural–urban socio-economic welfare and infrastructure development. The challenges also include issues such as empowerment of migrating women, delayed marriage age and low fertility rate, unemployment in urban areas, high dependency ratio, and concentration of low-skill employment in rural underdeveloped areas.