Forecasting WTI & Brent Crude Oil Price Using LSTM, Prophet and XGBoost – Comparative Analysis

Crude oil is one of the main commodities traded on international commodity markets. Price fluctuations of this raw material are influenced by external factors such as political events, weather factors, but also wars and so-called demand and supply shocks. The activities of the OPEC organization are also important. In commodity trade, there are two main types of crude oil, the so-called WTI and Brent. It seems that there is a lack of direct comparison of the PROPHET model with XGBoost and verification of both models for spot prices for both WTI and Brent crude oil. In addition to the aforementioned models also LSTM model was also tested. The article aims to compare the predictive capabilities of the Prophet and XGBoost models as well as LSTM in predicting crude oil spot prices.